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Anecdotal Evidence – Economic Update

By:  Scott Fiore

Well I began to see the term “double dip” in the media over the weekend.  While much of the talk around a “double dip” recession was aimed at the (ridiculous in my opinion) debate of raising the debt ceiling, we have seen evidence of the possibility of a double dip – and recently evidence that we may already be on the way out.

Background quickly first.  Many view my industry (temporary labor and recruitment process outsourcing) as a leading economic indicator.  As I’ve written lately, during traditional recessionary periods my industry leads into the recession, and then back out.  Typically we feel the effect before the media begins to report a recession, and are generally experiencing a recovery prior to reports of that recovery – often at the first reports of a recession in the first place.

We began to see signs of slowdown in the spring.  In talking to my peers it was a national trend. 

Honestly we have been so busy during the last couple of weeks that the only reason I am making this post is that I had a meeting cancel and decided to use the suddenly free time to make a quick post.

What we’ve seen in the last few months is much more consistent with traditional recessionary patterns.  Our industry slows.  Some period of time later we begin to see signs of improvement in temp usage and recruiting.  At about that same time as we begin to recover we begin to see media reports of a slowdown (it’s actually normal as it takes some time for the data around employment to be tabulated, analyzed, adjusted, and reported). 

That’s what we’ve seen of late and I thought I would pass along this feint glimmer of hope with all the doomsday talk about the debt ceiling and US default.  Note – we here at TriStarr are only one small firm in a small market.  While we have followed the larger national trends in the past, what we experience can only be termed anecdotal when compared to the overall US economy. 

I’ll keep you up on what we’re seeing, and enjoy the rest of the summer weather.

Scott

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